By Ian Werther in News — 14 Mar 2026

China Could Overtake Korea in OLED Capacity by 2029, Report Finds

A market forecast from Counterpoint Research suggests that China could overtake South Korea in OLED production capacity by 2029, signaling a potential shift in the global leadership of the high-end display industry.

The firm’s quarterly Display Equipment Investment and Market Share report notes that China is accelerating capacity expansion, backed by government support and the adoption of new deposition technologies at 8.7-generation facilities. Korea, by contrast, has been more focused on quality upgrades and selective technology investments rather than large-scale capacity increases.

Historically, Korea has led OLED globally, with Korea’s market share higher than China’s by about 13 percent in 2023. But Chinese panel makers such as BOE, CSOT and HKC are pressing ahead with aggressive capacity builds to capitalize on new deposition capabilities and scale.

This is the back of Xiaomi Mi Note 2, a LTE Phablet. It's made in China(2016). I took it with Sharp Z2(FS8002). System language is Traditional Chinese(zh-TW). 5.7 inches HD1080 LG OLED Display. The mobile network is over Chunghwa Telecom. — Representative image for context; not directly related to the specific event in this article. License: CC BY-SA 4.0. Source: Wikimedia Commons.

The report cautions that even with new investments, Korea’s total production capacity may not grow quickly due to structural constraints. It warns that if China matches, and then exceeds, Korea’s capacity through volume, the OLED lead could erode despite Korea’s technology edge in certain applications.

Globally, display market demand is expected to rise modestly. The 2026 global display production capacity is projected to grow about 2% from the previous year, while OLED capacity is forecast to grow around 5% annually from 2025 to 2030—outpacing LCD, which is expected to grow about 2% annually. Still, LCD is projected to remain the dominant segment, accounting for roughly 90% of total capacity by 2030.

Typical Day-Energy Production in South Africa. Summer vs Winter 2023. — Representative image for context; not directly related to the specific event in this article. License: CC BY-SA 4.0. Source: Wikimedia Commons.

China is anticipated to maintain a dominant share of overall display capacity, rising from about 73% in 2025 to around 75% by 2027. Major Chinese players are expanding their lines for very large displays, including 85-inch-plus television panels, by augmenting existing plants. Following China, Taiwan is expected to hold about 15%, with Korea at roughly 8% and Japan around 1%.

Why this matters for the United States: OLED displays are central to many U.S. consumer electronics, including smartphones, televisions, and other devices. A shift in global production leadership could affect supply-chain resilience, pricing, and the ability of U.S. firms to secure access to advanced panels and the equipment needed to produce them. The trajectory also intersects with U.S. policy on technology competition with China and considerations for diversification of critical supply chains in semiconductors and display technology.

Counterpoint Research, a market intelligence firm, frames these projections around production capacity rather than installed capacity, reflecting investment trends and competitive dynamics across Asia. The report underscores that the coming years will test whether Korea’s technology edge can withstand a rapid expansion of capacity in China and other market shifts in the global display ecosystem.

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