Iran tensions lift oil above $100, roiling U.S. and South Korea markets
Iran’s next leader, Mojtaba Khamenei, signaled in his first remarks a willingness to pursue a long-running confrontation with the United States. In the wake of that stance, global oil prices climbed back above $100 per barrel, weighing on risk appetite in financial markets.
South Korea’s benchmark KOSPI fell 96.01 points, or 1.72%, to close at 5,487.24 as U.S. equities slid. The move came as New York’s three major stock indices also declined in tandem with the oil rally and renewed geopolitical uncertainty.
The rally in crude prices was underpinned by news that the U.S. Navy’s ability to guarantee safe passage through the Hormuz Strait could be limited through the end of the month, reinforcing concerns about supply disruptions and inflationary pressures.
!["Abbreviations: RR, relative risk; CI, confidence interval; RCT: randomized controlled trial. Buckland G, 2012: Cancer mortality = a; breast cancer = c. Donat-Vargas C, 2021: ENRICA Study = c."
Note that the effects could vary e.g. per cancer type. This wouldn't be clear with only a summary number. The 2015 Toledo study included above reported these results:
"After a median follow-up of 4.8 years, we identified 35 confirmed incident cases of breast cancer. Observed rates (per 1000 person-years) were 1.1 for the Mediterranean diet with extra-virgin olive oil group, 1.8 for the Mediterranean diet with nuts group, and 2.9 for the control group."
"A 16% reduced risk of CVD (relative risk [RR]: 0.84; 95% confidence interval [CI]: 0.76 to 0.94), standardized for every additional olive oil consumption of 25 g/d was found. No significant association with cancer risk was observed (RR: 0.94; 95% CI: 0.86 to 1.03, per 25 g/d). Olive oil consumption was associated with a 22% lower relative risk of T2D (RR: 0.78; 95% CI: 0.69 to 0.87, per 25 g/d) without evidence of heterogeneity. Similarly, it was inversely associated with all-cause mortality (RR: 0.89; 95% CI: 0.85 to 0.93, per 25 g/d). Only the results for T2D were homogeneous. Specific sources of heterogeneity for the other 3 outcomes were not always apparent."
"Exploratory meta-regression analyses were conducted using the “metareg” command. Covariates explored in the meta-regression analyses were geographical origin (Mediterranean and non-Mediterranean countries), number of participants (<10,000 vs ≥ 10,000), length of the follow-up period (<10 vs ≥ 10 years), exposure assessment (olive oil quantified vs olive oil in categories), mean intake of olive oil (≥12 g/d vs < 12 g/d)."](https://journalkor.site/content/images/2026/03/01_Relative_risk_and_95__CI_of_cancer__incidence_or_mortality__associated_with_25_grams_per_day_increase_in_olive_oil_consumption.jpg)
Attention also focused on privately placed lending, a sector highlighted by a Financial Times report on the 11th. The coverage intensified worries that larger software and AI-driven firms could face higher funding costs or tighter credit if private-lending risk worsens.
U.S. stock concerns spilled over to the private-credit space. JPMorgan Chase’s shares have fallen nearly 11% year-to-date, while Ares Management and Blackstone linked to private loan funds also declined (about 6.7% and 4.8%, respectively). Banks that directly financed private loan funds likewise trended lower.
Analysts cautioned that the private-lending issue, while troubling, does not automatically translate into immediate, broad-based deterioration in fundamentals. The shock to software firms depends on how AI-driven disruption unfolds, with some viewing the current fears as a risk priced into markets for now.
Still, experts noted the need to monitor liquidity and the default risk of underlying assets. Private loans are classified as high-risk assets, with risk weights of 100–150% already reflected in valuations. In the wake of post-crisis reforms, analysts say any additional defaults would likely be manageable, but ongoing vigilance remains warranted.
Why this matters for the United States: shifts in oil prices and risk sentiment can influence inflation, monetary policy expectations, and energy policy in the U.S. Tech funding and private-credit markets in the United States—home to major asset managers and lenders—could experience spillovers if private lending conditions tighten or if AI-related adoption reshapes the profitability of software firms. For investors and policymakers, the episode highlights how geopolitical risk, energy markets, and complex credit structures interact to affect markets, supply chains, and technology sector valuations beyond Korea.