U.S. stocks fall as oil climbs amid Middle East tensions and weak data

U.S. stock markets fell on Friday as oil prices continued to rise on tensions in the Middle East and a fresh round of weaker-than-expected economic data.

The Dow Jones Industrial Average closed down 119.38 points at 46,558.47. The S&P 500 slid 40.43 to 6,632.19, while the Nasdaq Composite declined 206.62 to 22,105.36. All three indices finished the session in the red, marking a third straight weekly decline for each gauge (Dow down 2.0% for the week; S&P 500 down 1.6%; Nasdaq down 1.3%).

Investors remained focused on the Middle East, where the conflict involving Iran and regional tensions have kept energy markets volatile. Market attention centered on the Hormuz Strait, a crucial chokepoint for global oil shipments, and the broader implications for energy supply routes in the region.

On December 16, 2018, NASA’s Aqua satellite passed over the Middle East, allowing the Moderate Resolution Imaging Spectroradiometer (MODIS) on board to acquire a beautiful true-color image of Iran, Afghanistan and Pakistan.
One notable feature readily identifiable in the west (left) of the image is the upfolding topography of the Zagros Mountains. Beginning north of the Persian Gulf near the narrow Strait of Hormuz, the long mountain range extends about 990 miles (1,600 km), forming the extreme western boundary of the Iranian plateau. The area is actively undergoing crustal shortening as global tectonics move Arabia towards Asia. As a result, the layers of sedimentary rock are slowly folding upward in ridges, somewhat like a carpet folds upward if pushed. In this case, the compressive forces create massive folds – the local relief between the higher mountain ridges and the valleys can be as much as 1200 meters (4,000 feet).

To the east, in southern Afghanistan, an apparently smooth area of orange-tinted tans marks the large Registan Desert. The desert terrain is, indeed, relatively flat, but fails to meet the criteria of “smooth”, at least at ground level. The winds, which blow consistently form the same direction, causes sand to pile up in crescent-moon shaped dunes, whose thin tips point in the direction of the wind flow. Called barchan dunes, these dunes will migrate across the desert surface as sand grains on the crest of the dune are toppled by the wind and spill down the leeward face. As the pile of sand on the leeward side of the dune gets larger, gravity eventually topples the pile, moving the dune’s leading edge slowly forward. The movement is slow but steady – some barchan dunes can migrate between 8 and 15 feet each year.
Representative image for context; not directly related to the specific event in this article. License: Public domain. Source: Wikimedia Commons.

The session opened with gains but gave back momentum after reports that U.S. strikes against Iran had expanded. President Donald Trump said in a broadcast interview that he would strike Iran “very hard” over the next week. The Defense Department also signaled the possibility of broader attacks, with Defense Secretary Pete Hegseth stating that the operation could be the largest in scale among U.S. aerial actions over Iran, depending on how events unfold.

Oil prices kept climbing. Brent crude settled at $103.14 per barrel on the London-based ICE Futures Europe exchange, the highest close since July 2022. West Texas Intermediate finished at $98.71 per barrel, up about 3.1% from the previous session.

Description from NASA (source): 
"NASA's Terra Satellites Sees Spill on May 24
Sunlight illuminated the lingering oil slick off the Mississippi Delta on May 24, 2010. The Moderate-Resolution Imaging Spectroradiometer (MODIS) on NASA’s Terra satellite captured this image the same day.
Oil smoothes the ocean surface, making the Sun’s reflection brighter near the centerline of the path of the satellite, and reducing the scattering of sunlight in other places. As a result, the oil slick is brighter than the surrounding water in some places (image center) and darker than the surrounding water in others (image lower right). The tip of the Mississippi Delta is surrounded by muddy water that appears light tan. Bright white ribbons of oil streak across this sediment-laden water.
Tendrils of oil extend to the north and east of the main body of the slick. A small, dark plume along the edge of the slick, not far from the original location of the Deepwater Horizon rig, indicates a possible controlled burn of oil on the ocean surface. 
To the west of the bird’s-foot part of the delta, dark patches in the water may also be oil, but detecting a manmade oil slick in coastal areas can be even more complicated than detecting it in the open ocean.
When oil slicks are visible in satellite images, it is because they have changed how the water reflects light, either by making the Sun’s reflection brighter or by dampening the scattering of sunlight, which makes the oily area darker. In coastal areas, however, similar changes in reflectivity can occur from differences in salinity (fresh versus salt water) and from naturally produced oils from plants.

Michon Scott, NASA's Earth Observatory, NASA Goddard Space Flight Center"
Representative image for context; not directly related to the specific event in this article. License: Public domain. Source: Wikimedia Commons.

On the U.S. economy, data released showed softer growth and inflation than some had anticipated. The Commerce Department reported fourth-quarter gross domestic product grew at an annualized 0.7%, well below the 1.4% consensus estimate and markedly slower than the 4.4% pace in the prior quarter.

Separately, the personal consumption expenditures (PCE) price index rose 2.8% year over year in January, a touch below market expectations of 2.9%. The month-over-month increase was 0.3%, in line with forecasts.

For U.S. readers, the confluence of rising energy costs, a softer-than-expected growth trajectory, and heightened geopolitical risk has broad implications. Higher oil prices can feed into inflation and consumer bills, influence Federal Reserve policy and interest rates, and affect market volatility. At the same time, ongoing Middle East tensions raise questions about potential supply disruptions that could influence global energy markets, supply chains, and defense spending. The movements in equities and energy prices thus matter beyond Korea, shaping American households, corporate finance, and policy decisions.

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