Global markets echo 2007-2008 as oil tops $100 and lending strains surface
A Bloomberg News report, citing Bank of America’s chief investment strategist Michael Hartnett, says the current market backdrop—rising oil prices and concerns about private lending quality—has begun to resemble the prelude to the 2008 financial crisis.
Hartnett’s investor note argued that asset-price movements in 2026 are eerily similar to the mid-2007 to mid-2008 period, suggesting Wall Street could be entering a “2007–2008-like” phase. He attributed part of the mood to bets that a repeat of 2007–2008 chaos will not unfold.
Oil prices have surged above $100 a barrel amid intensified U.S.–Iran tensions and robust demand from China, echoing the kind of supply-and-speculation dynamics that helped push oil to nearly $147 in 2008. The escalation in energy costs also feeds inflation concerns and could influence the Federal Reserve’s policy path.
Hartnett said the market’s pricing reflects an expectation that the Iran conflict will not be prolonged and that the private-lending crisis will not become a system-wide disruption, at least in the near term. He noted that policy authorities appear willing to support markets, sustaining appetite for risk assets.
Last month, Blue Owl Capital—an established private credit manager—announced the permanent halt of redemptions on one of its three funds, underscoring liquidity stress in non-bank lending. Mohamed El-Erian, a longtime Allianz Group adviser, called that move a potentially “canary in the coal mine” moment.
The piece draws a parallel to August 2007, when France’s BNP Paribas suspended redemptions on three funds tied to U.S. subprime assets, an action widely viewed as an early warning that helped precipitate the 2008 crisis.
For U.S. readers, the development matters beyond Korea because a stress in private-credit markets can tighten funding conditions for U.S. corporations, affect refinancing costs, and influence consumer inflation through higher energy prices. The episode also highlights how non-bank financing and asset-price dynamics—driven by policy support and global energy markets—can spill over into American markets, investment strategies, and supply chains, including technology stocks that rely on easy liquidity.