By Ian Werther in News — 14 Mar 2026

Middle East conflict reshapes oil markets as Asia buys more Russian crude

Rising crude prices tied to heightened conflict in the Middle East are shifting global oil flows, as India and China increase imports of Russian crude. The Financial Times reports that with the Hormuz Strait effectively facing disruption, demand for Russian oil is rising in Asia, and a large share of shipments is moving by sea toward Indian ports.

Analysts estimate Russia could gain about $1.3–1.9 billion in extra revenue so far, with total additional revenue potentially reaching $3.3–4.9 billion by the end of March. The calculation rests on the assumption that Urals crude would average roughly $70–$80 per barrel in the period, up from recent two-month averages around $52.

Oil Spill Along the Lebanese Coast
In the summer of 2006, military conflict between Lebanon and Israel led to an oil spill along the coast of Lebanon. Between July 13 and 15, 2006, damage to the Jiyyeh Power Station released thousands of tons of oil along the coast of Lebanon. According to BBC news, early estimates indicated that the oil spill could rival the Exxon Valdez accident in 1989. Covering roughly 120 kilometers (75 miles), the spill was expected to affect fishing and tourism industries, as well as local wildlife. Because cleanup efforts could not safely begin until the hostilities ended, the oil slick continued to spread in the Mediterranean Sea in early August 2006. Representatives from the United Nations, the European Union, and the International Maritime Organization planned to discuss the issue in Greece on August 17, 2006.
The Advanced Spaceborne Thermal Emission and Reflection Radiometer (ASTER) on NASA’s Terra satellite took this picture of the region on August 10, 2006. In this image, the oil slick appears as a slightly darker shade of blue on the sea surface, and it is easier to see in the enlarged area around Beirut at lower right. The slick spreads from the power plant at the southern end of the image to well north of the city of Beirut. The oil initially moved away from the coast, but some officials feared that it might return to the shoreline. The intensely urbanized area of Beirut appears in shades of gray, with straight lines and sharp angles marking the city’s features. In contrast, patches of green appear along Lebanon’s rough terrain to the east.

Oil slicks are not always easily visible in satellite imagery from passive sensors like radiometers, which observe reflected sunlight. The ocean is already a dark surface in the imagery from those sensors, and the oil may only change the color slightly if at all. More often, oil slicks are observed with active sensors like radars, which send out pulses of energy and measure the returned signal. However, at the time of this image, the area of the slick was in a part of the ASTER scene where the sea surface appeared very bright. Generally, the rougher the water surface, the brighter the sea will appear, and because oil smoothes the water’s surface, places where the oil has spread appear darker in this image. — Representative image for context; not directly related to the specific event in this article. License: Public domain. Source: Wikimedia Commons.

The surge in demand comes as the International Energy Agency noted Russia’s exports of crude and oil products fell in February to about 6.6 million barrels per day, down 11.4% from January and the lowest since Russia’s 2022 invasion of Ukraine. Market dynamics have since shifted as India and China resume or accelerate purchases of Russian crude.

Data from shipping-tracking firm Clipper indicate a substantial portion of Russian crude remains in transit, with many shipments headed for Indian ports. India’s daily imports of Russian crude are currently around 1.5 million barrels per day, about 50% higher than the previous month, with industry sources noting monthly totals could approach 2 million barrels per day at times.

Within a week of the war’s outbreak, India and China had each increased their Russian oil intake by roughly 22%, according to the reporting. Analysts say that if the Middle East conflict persists, Russia’s influence in the energy market could grow as more countries bid to secure its crude.

Illustration from the book Sketches in crude-oil; some accidents and incidents of the petroleum development in all parts of the globe, ... 3rd Edition. by McLaurin — Representative image for context; not directly related to the specific event in this article. License: Public domain. Source: Wikimedia Commons.

Russian President Vladimir Putin has framed the evolving energy market as entering a “new price reality,” even alluding to the possible resumption of energy exports to Europe. The government’s stance underscores Moscow’s willingness to leverage higher prices to bolster state finances amid geopolitical pressure.

For U.S. readers, the development matters beyond Korea because it touches global energy prices, inflation, and supply chains. A sustained rise in Russian oil sales—especially to major Asian buyers like India and China—could influence global oil markets, affect sanctions dynamics, and shape U.S. policy considerations on energy security, allies’ sourcing options, and how Western economies manage price volatility and economic resilience.

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