Hormuz blockade boosts Russian oil revenue as India, China ramp up purchases
Rising crude prices driven by ongoing conflict have boosted demand for Russian oil, with Indian and Chinese buyers increasingly sourcing from Moscow as the Hormuz Strait remains blocked. The Financial Times reports that the Russian government could see a substantial uptick in daily revenue from oil sales as a result.
The FT estimates that by the end of this month Russia may gain about $3.3 billion to $4.9 billion in extra revenue, assuming Urals crude holds at roughly $70–$80 per barrel. By comparison, the last two months saw an average price around $52 per barrel. The report notes that Russia’s political and economic fortunes have turned sharply in a way analysts describe as a considerable turnaround from the downturn the country faced before this conflict intensified.
The International Energy Agency’s latest monthly data show Russia’s overall oil and products exports at about 6.6 million barrels per day, down 11.4% from a prior period and at their lowest since Russia’s 2022 invasion of Ukraine. At the same time, a large share of Russian crude is currently in transit, with shipments moving across the Indian Ocean toward Indian ports.
As of the 11th, India’s imports of Russian crude stood at about 1.5 million barrels per day, up roughly 50% from early last month, according to vessel-tracking data compiled by Kpler. Sumit Ritolia, Kpler’s senior analyst, warned that if current shipments and market signals persist, Russia’s total daily arrivals could approach 2 million barrels per day this month, underscoring Moscow’s growing influence in a volatile market.
Analysts from think tanks also noted the fiscal implications. Sergey Bakurenko of the Carnegie Russia-Eurasia Center said that for every $10 rise in the average oil price per barrel, Russia’s exporters gain about $2.8 billion, with around $1.63 billion of that accruing to the state as taxes. He estimated the daily budget impact could rise by about $54 million, implying that if the pattern held for a month, Russia could accumulate roughly $3.3–$5.0 billion in additional revenue.
Diplomatic signals outside the market frame also showed movement. The Kremlin said a phone call between President Vladimir Putin and former President Donald Trump yielded a "very productive" discussion, while Trump suggested sanctions on some countries could be lifted until the Hormuz Straits are normalized. The comments indicate a potential easing of financial constraints on Russian oil while the U.S. weighs its sanctions policy.
Why this matters for the United States and global markets: higher Russian oil revenue can affect Moscow’s fiscal capacity and influence its ability to sustain military and strategic activities, even as sanctions policies evolve. For U.S. policy, the developments intersect with energy security, supply diversification for major buyers like India and China, and the pace at which Western price controls and sanctions regimes interact with global crude markets. The situation also highlights how geopolitical disruption in one region can ripple through energy prices, supply chains, and investor sentiment in U.S. energy equities and consumer energy costs.