Iran regime unlikely to collapse soon despite Israeli pressure, WSJ reports
The Wall Street Journal reported on March 12 that Israeli officials assess Iran’s current regime is unlikely to collapse in the near future, even as hostilities continue and Iran’s military and political leadership remains functioning. The assessment suggests that for the foreseeable future, any effort to change Iran’s government would require an extended period of conflict or other dynamics beyond immediate military action.
Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu indicated that, while he cannot promise the Iranian regime will fall at the hands of the Iranian people, he implied that its power would be weakened if it did not ultimately survive intact. The remarks appear to align with a view in some Israeli circles that military pressure alone is unlikely to trigger a regime change.
Israel’s military and foreign ministry have signaled restrained war aims. An Israeli army spokesperson, Nadav Shoshani, described the mission as identifying threats, minimizing them, and deterring aggression, with various escalatory steps that fall outside the core scope of frontline operations. The framing underscores a preference for targeted, time-limited measures rather than decisive, regime-ending goals.
Gideon Saar, Israel’s foreign minister, told the English-language outlet Timеs of Israel in an interview that military action alone cannot topple the Iranian regime, calling for change to come from within Iran. He cautioned that, before a war ends, such a regime change is unlikely to occur spontaneously.
U.S. President Donald Trump has given multiple interviews this week without laying out a fixed timetable, repeatedly suggesting that an Iran war could end relatively quickly. The WSJ account notes that Israeli officials are conscious of domestic U.S. pressure that could push Washington toward a quicker conclusion, even as they prefer a longer campaign against Iran.
An anonymous source cited by the Journal said the Israeli side understands the president’s stance and the political pressures at home, and that this may influence decisions about how long the conflict with Iran is sustained. The article frames this as a tension between Israel’s strategic aims and U.S. domestic political considerations.
For U.S. readers, the story matters for several reasons. A protracted stand-off with Iran affects regional security in the Middle East, with implications for American allies and partners, including Israel. It also has potential spillovers for global energy markets and supply chains through the Persian Gulf and broader Middle East, where instability can influence oil and gas pricing and procurement. At the same time, U.S.-Israel cooperation on defense technology and intelligence depends on alignment over risks, escalation dynamics, and the political timetable for any potential action against Iran. The report also highlights how domestic U.S. political dynamics can shape foreign policy choices in a volatile regional environment.