Russia poised for billions in extra revenue as Hormuz blockage redirects oil flows
Rising oil prices linked to the Iran conflict are boosting demand for Russian crude, with the Financial Times estimating that Russia could log as much as $150 million in additional daily revenue from oil sales by month’s end, based on Urals crude trading around $70–$80 per barrel.
The surge comes as the Hormuz Strait remains blocked, pushing Indian and Chinese buyers to source more Russian crude and signaling Russia as a principal beneficiary of the conflict surrounding Iran.
FT’s analysis puts the total extra income for Russia this month at roughly $3.3 billion to $4.9 billion, again assuming the Urals price stays within the $70–$80 range. Analysts note this would mark a dramatic reversal from earlier weakness caused by sanctions pressure and export hiccups.
The International Energy Agency’s latest monthly report shows Russia’s shipments of crude and related products slipped to about 6.6 million barrels per day, down 11.4% year on year, the lowest level since Russia’s 2022 invasion of Ukraine.
Despite the overall drop in outbound flows, a large portion of Russia’s crude is moving on ships toward India. Data tracked by the analytics firm Kpler indicate shipments traveling across the Indian Ocean to Indian ports, with India’s Russian crude imports reaching about 1.5 million bpd as of November 11, up roughly 50% from early last month.
If current shipping schedules hold, Kpler’s analysts say Russia could approach 2 million bpd in Russian crude arrivals for the month, making Moscow a notable beneficiary of the current market dislocation.
Analysts at Carnegie Russia-Eurasia Center note that every $10 rise in the monthly average oil price could boost Russian exporters’ revenue by about $2.8 billion, of which roughly $1.63 billion would flow to the state through taxes. In practical terms, they say that daily budget receipts could rise by about $54 million, suggesting a monthly gain of roughly $3.3 billion to $5.0 billion if the trend continues.
On the political front, the Kremlin described a recent phone call between President Vladimir Putin and former President Donald Trump as “very productive.” Trump said sanctions on some countries could be lifted as the Hormuz crisis normalizes, a statement that underscores how shifts in oil revenue and geopolitical leverage can intersect with U.S. policy signals.
For U.S. readers, the developments matter because they illustrate how Middle East tensions and shipping chokepoints can reshape global oil flows, pricing, and the fiscal capacity of major producers. Higher Russian revenue can influence global energy markets, affect sanctions policy and budgetary planning, and interact with supply chains that the United States relies on for domestic and international markets.